NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern USA and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S.

A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

No part of the United States is predicted to have lower than normal temperatures on average.

Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group, which specializes in long-range prediction, agreed with the broad strokes of NOAA's outlook but said its temperature forecast was "conservative" in the East and that he would lean toward colder conditions. This winter may be different, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its annual winter outlook.

"No part of the favored to have below-average temperatures", Halpert said. It's also worth noting that the forecasters base their predictions on probability and don't say how much precipitation the US will get or how hot temperatures will be. It is expected to be weaker than the El Nino that developed during the 2015/2016 winter.

"All things being equal, the slight kick we get out of the climate signal does tilt things toward the warm side", Halpert said; cautioning, however, that that's not enough to outweigh other factors if they push toward cold. Wetter conditions are in store for much of the southern USA, up into the mid-Atlantic while drier conditions are likely for the northern Rockies, Northern Plains, northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The chances are highest in southeastern Georgia and much of northern and central Florida.

Of course, that's just a prediction, and a rough one at that.

Along with Michigan, Halper said northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to be drier than normal, along with parts of Idaho, Hawaii and Montana, too.

Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.

The winter forecast hinges largely on the 75% chance that an El Niño event - characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean - develops in the coming months and lasts through the season, which for meteorologists begins December 1, according to NOAA. He also forecasted a warm winter, heavily based on weak snowfall in Siberia.

Related news